Corn, wheat, and soybean futures all posted hefty declines following the release of the USDA’s November supply-demand update on Friday.
The s-d report was first since September, with the October report scuttled by the now-ended US government shutdown.
Corn fell as the USDA cut its 2025 US average yield estimate by less than expected by traders and analysts. The USDA pegged the average yield at 186 bu/acre, down just 0.7 bu from its September versus expectations for a 2 bu reduction. Ending stocks also came in up from September and heavier than expected by the trade. December corn lost 11 ¼ cents to $4.30 ¼, and March lost 11 ½ cents to $4.44.
The soybean numbers appeared less bearish, with the average yield trimmed slightly more than expected, and US ending stocks pegged lower than projected at 290 million bu, a three-year low. However, the USDA also cuts its export forecast by 50 million bu and revised up the 2024-25 Brazil soy crop. Meanwhile, the USDA’s release of the backlog of unreported large daily sales from the government shutdown showed 1.348 million tonnes. China was the buyer of just 332,000 of that, with 616,00 to unknown destinations. January beans lost 22 ½ cents to $11.24 ½, and March dropped 20 ¾ cents to $11.36.
For wheat, the USDA raised its 2025-26 US and global wheat ending stocks forecasts from September, with world output also revised higher. December Chicago dropped 8 ½ cents to $5.27 ¼, and December Kansas City fell 10 ½ cents to $5.15 ¼. December Hard Red Spring lost a nickel to $5.29, and December Minneapolis was also down a nickel at $5.64 ¾.
